Hill Stakes at Rosehill: feature race tips and previews

05 OCTOBER 2023
Author

CAMERON ROSE

EDITOR

HILL STAKES - 2000m, Rosehill R7

The Hill Stakes has certainly been put more on the map in recent years, thanks to a prizemoney increase to the level of $2M. It’s fair to say it hasn’t attracted the elite quality that they might have hoped for, it has still drawn a deep and even field.

Montefilia is the favourite, as the proven quality in the field. However, it has been a long time between drinks for her, with her last win coming in March last year, and she’s getting to the point in a mare’s career where the question has to be asked whether she still has a zest for racing and a will to win. She’s been good without being exceptional in all three runs this prep, and this is something of a D-Day for her.

Numerian looks to be the forgotten horse, even if he himself hasn’t won since June 2022. He was second in this race last year, splitting Cascadian and Montefilia, and the former galloper would be a short price favourite in this. Numerian’s 2000m record in Australia is 6: 1-4-0, with most of those second’s at Group 1 level or stronger races than this. Residual fitness from a Queensland campaign should carry him a long way, and his on-speed racing style will be suited in this race.

Zeyrek should be around the mark somewhere, as he usually is, but Numerian has had his measure a couple of times this year already. Protagonist looks well suited third-up after two pleasing runs to begin his prep, and the dryer the better for him.

Sky Lab put the writing on the wall first-up behind Buenos Noches, and was good again last start behind Just Fine. Hinged can be a player as well, if she can bounce back from cardiac arrhythmia last start.

Young Werther has always had talent, and might now be putting it all together with two wins in a row. He’s been placed at Group 1 level four times in his career, and ran placings in the ATC Derby and the Tulloch Stakes in his only two runs the Sydney way of going, so that won’t be an issue.

Another horse at big odds is No Compromise. He’s drawn poorly and will have to go back, but he knows how to attack the line, and 2000m second-up profiles well for him. He has shown some very good second-up form in the past over unsuitable 1600m trips, and his first-up run showed he can win a race this prep.

Selections: 1.Numerian 2.Protagonist 3.Young Werther 4.Montefilia

Author
Cameron rose's Tip

NUMERIAN

EACH-WAY

Petaluma Hill Stakes 07 October 16:10
1. Numerian Playup
Win
Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

ALAN BROWN STAKES - 1400m, Rosehill R8

The Alan Brown Stakes is yet another new race that Racing NSW have thrown onto the spring calendar, worth a cool $1.5M for the sprinter-miler’s and run over 1400m.

Waterford is the early favourite, albeit it’s each-way odds the field. He certainly loves this distance range, having won all of his races between 1300m-1500m, and has a superb record at Rosehill too. His first two runs this campaign have been good, running on in good races, but he’s finding it tough to break through as a backmarker now that he’s in better races.

Argentia looks a lovely each-way play at double figure odds here, if she can be given a good ride. She started favourite in the Theo Marks last start after her good second to Buenos Noches in the Show County, but was perhaps ridden a bit too warm. Her best runs have been when allowed to find her feet and finish over the top of them, and perhaps Joe Pride is still working her out.

Cotehele is a good honest sort that has drawn well, and gets in with a nice weight here. He ran well through winter, and looks to have come back a bit more mature as a five-year-old now, perhaps set for this first-up. He can put himself on the speed and look the winner at some stage.

Roots is a first-up specialist that has proven herself at Group 1 and Group 2 level against mares, but should have no problem being competitive against the boys in this sort of race. It all depends on whether Chris Waller has set her for this, or is just giving her a hit out while eyeing off something else down the track.

Cepheus has a big weight, but has earned it, and will be somewhere in the game under the vigorous riding of Nash Rawiller. Detonator Jack is super consistent for the Maher/Eustace stable, but likely has to find another level. The jury is out on Olentia after a couple of runs where she hasn’t lived up to expectation.

Selections: 1.Argentia 2.Cotehele 3.Waterford 4.Roots

Author
Cameron rose's Tip

ARGENTIA

EACH-WAY

Alan Brown Stakes 07 October 16:45
13. Argentia Playup
Win
Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

THE NIVISION - 1200m, Rosehill R9

The Nivision sees the mares come together over a sprint trip, under set weights and penalties conditions.

Parisal, Magic Time and Queen of the Ball hold all the aces as far as the market is concerned, and it’s hard to argue on paper.

Parisal and Magic Time are fighting out favouritism. They met once as two-year-old’s, when running the quinella in the PJ Bell with the latter filly prevailing, but that was on a Randwick heavy as opposed to the Rosehill good they will likely see on Saturday.

What a beauty Parisal is, seven times in the quinella from eight career starts. She’s come back in fantastic order, as we saw in her Toy Show Quality win first-up and Cockram Stakes second to Benedetta when just failing to hold her off despite carrying 2kg’s more. She’s fit, in-form, and the one to beat.

Magic Time ran on well first-up, but was never going to catch Asfoora given the trail she was blazing. That mare then made Imperatriz run a track record to beat her in the Moir Stakes last week, so the form is as strong as any in the sprinting ranks this season. Magic Time is a very classy customer, and we should see a classic contest.

But perhaps Queen of the Ball might spoil the party? Parisal went past her first-up, but that was a soft track at Randwick over 1100m – Rosehill should suit this mare better, and she also prefers dry ground. She overdid it up front in the Sheraco last start, setting the race up for Sunshine In Paris and Espiona, but she’s been give four weeks between runs to recover, and could spring a surprise here.

Rainbiel might be the best roughie. She’s run some decent races in her time, and this will now be her third run for Joe Pride, the master of getting the best out of tried horses. She’s drawn well to stalk the speed, and could be in it for a long way.

Selections: 1.Queen of the Ball 2.Parisel 3.Magic Time 4.Rainbiel

Author
Cameron rose's Tip

QUEEN OF THE BALL

EACH-WAY

The Nivison 07 October 17:25
4. Queen Of The Ball Playup
Win
Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

THE NIVISION - 1400m, Rosehill R6

This year is the second running of the Tapp-Craig, and it looks to present us with the best bet of the Rosehill program.

Year after year, the best form race for three-year-old’s in the spring is the Golden Rose, and Encap lines up as favourite here after finishing second in that race two weeks ago. He has built his form all campaign, running second in a couple of handy maidens, running an eye-catching third in the Up & Coming Stakes, and winning the Ming Dynasty before almost snatching the Golden Rose.

In that race Encap split Militarize, a three time Group 1 winner, and Cylinder, Godolphin’s best colt and Everest contender, and looked every bit the winner until he was bloused late. He is coming off two career-best runs, both at this track and distance, has drawn well, and can sit handy before sprinting away. He just wins.

Snapback was also in the Golden Rose, beaten three lengths after leading the field along. He’s shown good ability from the get-go, and will again go forward from a good draw and make his presence felt in this weaker race.

Ducasse was last seen closing off strongly behind Encap in the Ming Dynasty, but has been kept fresh for this after avoiding the Golden Rose. He can give the favourite a scare under the right circumstances.

The Little Pumper shows promise, and his form can be lined up with Encap through horse called Kintyre. He’s a couple of months between runs though, albeit with a trial in-between. He’s a watch.

Heman finished down the track in that funny race at Flemington three weeks ago, where the inside horses all finished well ahead of those drawn wider like this I Am Invincible colt did. Two horses have already won out of that race after finishing down the track, and Heman could be another.

Selections: 1.Encap 2.Snapback 3.Ducasse 4.The Little Pumper

Author
Cameron rose's Tip

ENCAP

WIN

Toyota Forklifts Tapp-Craig 07 October 15:35
1. Encap Playup
Win
Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

THE NIVISION - 1400m, Rosehill R6

The Heritage Stakes at Rosehill two weeks ago provides the bulk of the field here, with the first five runners home all fronting up again.

Ozzmosis won that race quite comfortably, sitting second and pinging away while giving no other horse a chance. He was only first-up there, should take improvement, and there appears no reason why he can’t do the same again.

Celestial Legend ran second to Ozzmosis there, and gave a good chase, so perhaps the step up to 1200m will suit him more than the favourite? But then Ozzmosis didn’t look like stopping, and is bred to enjoy six furlongs too.

Barber got well back in the Heritage, and hit the line really nicely out wide. He’ll meet the others 2.5kg’s better after carrying penalties in that race, and he can certainly be a bigger factor than his odds suggest.

King’s Gambit comes up from Melbourne, where he was a heavily backed favourite down the straight first-up. He’s never run a bad race in his life, but he never looked like he relished racing without a turn. It’s almost a year to the day since his five length win on debut, but he hasn’t won since. It’s almost time for the excuses to stop.

Selections: 1.Ozzmosis 2.Celestial Legend 3.King’s Gambit 4.Barber

Author
Cameron rose's Tip

OZZMOSIS

WIN

Tab Roman Consul Stakes 07 October 15:00
3. Ozzmosis Playup
Win
Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

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