MIGHT AND POWER STAKES - 2000m, Caulfield R7

An interesting field has assembled for this year’s Might and Power, with only a couple of proven weight-for-age horses in the line-up, one of which is a hot favourite that is a big question mark at 2000m.

That favourite is Alligator Blood, and his only two tries at this distance range were last spring when he was fifth in both this race and the Cox Plate. The horses that beat him home in those races were Anamoe, I’m Thunderstruck, Zaaki, Mr Brightside and El Bodegon, none of which are engaged here, and most of which would be rated higher than the opposition this year.

Alligator Blood’s win in the Underwood Stakes last start, over 1800m, was also visually strong enough to suggest that an extra furlong should be within his ability. He worked a bit on a slow speed early, and then was perfectly ridden to score, but only had the 10^th quickest last 400m and 200m.

Duais caught the eye for third in the Underwood, and there have been hints all year that the dual Group 1 WFA winner may be close to producing her best, but are we waiting for Godot? From gate 10 she’ll once again get back and have to run on, a scenario preferred at Flemington rather than Caulfield. Still, she’s clearly got the class.

Just Fine is the fresh horse on the scene, tackling weight-for-age for the first time. This is still his first preparation in Australia, a campaign in which he has won all three races, including the Group 1 Metropolitan over 2400m in course record time. He’ll go forward to stalk the favourite and be strong at the end when Alligator Blood is potentially wilting.

The rest of the field is at healthy double figure odds, and there are small cases for some to make an upset. Nonconformist has the most runs on the board at this level, given he ran second in this race two years ago splitting Probabeel and Zaaki, has finished second in a Caulfield Cup, and beat home Duais at WFA when second to Without A Fight in Queensland back in June.

Selections: 1.Just Fine 2.Duais 3.Alligator Blood 4.Nonconformist

Cameron rose's Tip

JUST FINE

WIN

Neds Might And Power 14 October 15:45

6. Just Fine

Win

Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

TOORAK HANDICAP - 1600m, Caulfield R10

The Toorak Handicap won’t be the biggest race on a Saturday that includes The Everest and Caulfield Guineas, but for racing fans it will be an enormous conclusion to the day thanks to the presence of Amelia’s Jewel.

The Perth star will hover around even money in the betting, and we will know late in the piece whether she gets crunched into red figures, or drifts out to $2.50 or beyond. At this stage it’s anyone’s guess. She doesn’t appear badly in at the weights, being asked to carry 56kg’s on a 52kg minimum, and you can argue that it’s not the strongest Toorak we’ve ever seen either – this is partly helped by the King Charles Stakes being run in Sydney at the same distance for $5M prizemoney.

Amelia’s Jewel has drawn barrier 12, and with a bit of speed in the race she should settle back in the field and set the race up for a grandstand finish. Will she or won’t she be able to run over the top of them?

Pride of Jenni put the acid to her in the Stocks Stakes last start, and Amelia’s Jewel was up to the challenge sitting just off her, but this time might have to give her 8-10 lengths head start. Pride of Jenni will also have a few horses for company up on the speed this time – Antino may push over from way out wide, Corner Pocket will certainly be up there, as should Here To Shock, with both of those horses drawn close to the rail. Even Ironclad and Savannah Cloud have shown they can press forward.

Amenable looks a great value play down on the minimum weight. He was just over two lengths behind Mr Brightside in the Memsie Stakes after coming from last, but let the punters down last start when never giving a yelp as an odds-on favourite. He comes into this with a gear change of tongue tie first time, so perhaps he had some breathing issues there? His previous two 1600m runs were being beaten around a length at Group 1 level in the Caulfield Guineas and Australian Guineas.

The Inevitable is simply flying over the last 12 months, winning a heap of races in Tasmania and bringing that form to the mainland. His third in the All-Star Mile behind Mr Brightside is elite form, which he franked with outstanding but unlucky runs in the Theo Marks and Epsom up in Sydney. He is right in the game.

If the Toorak does become a speed battle up front, then the likes of Amelia’s Jewel and Amenable should be suited, but if Pride of Jenni gets her own way in front then she’ll be incredibly tough to run down if bringing her best – sometimes she’s doesn’t. What a race it promises to be.

Selections: 1.Amelia’s Jewel 2.Amenable 3.The Inevitable 4.Pride of Jenni

Cameron rose's Tip

AMELIA'S JEWEL

WIN

Hyland Race Colours Toorak Hcp 14 October 17:50

3. Amelia's Jewel

Win

Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

Cameron rose's Tip

AMENABLE

EACH-WAY

Hyland Race Colours Toorak Hcp 14 October 17:50

15. Amenable

Win

Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

SCHILLACI STAKES - 1100m, Caulfield R5

The Schillaci sees two crack sprinters take each other on over the Caulfield 1100m, and dominate the market accordingly.

Asfoora is an incredibly consistent mare that has won seven of 13 career starts and never been beaten by more than a length and a half. She easily won at this course and distance first-up, and then it took Imperatriz to run a course record in order to beat her at Moonee Valley last start.

Uncommon James has a very similar record having won six of 11 and his worst two defeats being by two lengths in high class races. He’s unbeaten at Caulfield having won here in August last year, and is striking this race second-up after running third to Imperatriz and Asfoora to open his campaign.

These two have met each other four times in 2023, with the record standing at 2-2. Uncommon James won the Oakleigh Plate with Asfoora in third, and also finished ahead of her in the Galaxy when they were both close up – they were both handicaps. However, Asfoora has had his measure at WFA when they met in The Quokka and Moir Stakes.

On weights and measures, you’d suggest that in three out of those four clashes Asfoora was the better run, but Uncommon James now gets blinkers applied which may close the gap. The horse that has been in front of the other has always finished in front too, so which one is going to get there this time?

Ingratiating is the third pick as an in-form sprinter, albeit he can be inconsistent at times. He ran very well behind Asfoora here at the start of September. Chain of Lightning isn’t a pure sprinter, and is likely more suited at 1400m, but she is a classy mare that can always run well.

Selections: 1.Asfoora 2.Uncommon James 3.Ingratiating 4.Chain of Lightning

Cameron rose's Tip

ASFOORA

WIN

Metcap Finance Schillaci Stakes 14 October 14:35

7. Asfoora

Win

Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

HERBERT POWER STAKES - 2400m, Caulfield R3

The Herbert Power offers a potential last chance entry into the Caulfield Cup for the winner, and is always an important part of the Caulfield Guineas day card.

The lightly-raced Carini is the favourite, coming into this race third-up in his first preparation in Australia, after a six start career in Europe. He was tested at 2500m in France, for a well beaten second at Listed level, but that sort of form should translate well to Australia, especially once they’ve proven they have acclimatized well.

Carini put the writing on the wall first-up with an excellent run in a good form race, and got his win at Flemington last start. Stepping up from 1700m to 2400m with a month between runs looks very suitable, and he can camp just behind the speed from barrier one, carrying the minimum. The one to beat.

Two other horses also down in the weights look the logical dangers, Brayden Star and United Nations, each of them also on the up as stayers with potential.

Brayden Star is yet to miss a place in nine Australian runs, and steps up to a genuine staying trip for the first time. He certainly has the grounding, given he has been racing since May, and this will be his eighth run for the prep. His third to Future History two starts back was franked when that horse won the Bart Cummings last week.

United Nations has pretty much gone straight into the staying trips under the handling of Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, and has three runs in the 2400m-2500m distance range to be rock-hard fit now. He was only a couple of lengths behind Mostly Cloudy last start, and that horse ran very well behind Future History in the Bart Cummings, so the form all ties together.

Kalapour looks the pick of the rest, a hardy stayer from the Kris Lees stable that has been racing well up in Sydney and comes into this off a third placing at Group 1 level in the Metropolitan. He was a long way beaten by Just Fine, and rises 4.5kg’s on that run, but is sure to make his presence felt.

Selections: 1.Carini 2.Brayden Star 3.United Nations 4.Kalapour

Cameron rose's Tip

CARINI

WIN

Neds Herbert Power Stakes 14 October 13:25

8. Carini

Win

Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds