Victoria Derby Day is here, the first leg of the four day Melbourne Cup carnival. It was once known as the best day of racing on the Australian calendar, but that has probably changed over the last decade or so with Racing NSW taking a sledgehammer to the spring, and the VRC shuffling some races around. It was also known for a long times as “favourite’s day” due to how many short-priced winners would often salute, but that also isn’t really the case any more. Either way, it is a fantastic day of racing, complemented by the Golden Eagle at Rosehill.
Derby Day at Flemington: feature race tips and preview
CAMERON ROSE
EDITOR
CARBINE CLUB STAKES - 1600m, Flemington R1
CARBINE CLUB STAKES
The Carbine Club kicks off the Melbourne Cup carnival at Flemington, as it always does, a 1600m test for the three-year-old’s under set weights and penalties conditions.
Brave Mead is the favourite, a position he has held five times in his seven start career, converting three of those to wins. His win last start at Caulfield was effortless against a handy field, and this isn’t any tougher on paper. He should box seat from gate five and deserves his short quote.
Chris Waller and James McDonald can be lethal when teaming up with a three-year-old in this sort of race. Waller often brings one down from Sydney to blow the locals away, and all eyes are on Influential to see if he is that horse. McDonald rode him at all three starts as a two-year-old, as well as his trials before breaking his maiden first-up with ease. There is a bit of smoke here, and we might see the fire on Saturday…
Ersa looks the value pick at double figures, having won his maiden by nine lengths two starts back, before following it up with a good second behind Mojave Desert – that horse has been competitive with Caulfield Guineas winner Griff.
Heman showed ability as a two-year-old, but has started big odds in his two starts this campaign. We can forgive his first-up effort in what was a strange race, and he proved that by only going down length in the Tapp-Craig last time. He’s short enough here though.
Selections: 1.Influential 2.Brave Mead 3.Ersa 4.Heman
Cameron rose's Tip
INFLUENTIAL
WIN
Network 10 Carbine Club Stakes 04 November 12:20
Win
Place
* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds
ARCHER STAKES - 2500m, Flemington R2
The Archer Stakes is the last chance saloon for those looking to sneak into the Melbourne Cup, and five runners of this seven horse field are looking to do exactly that – Ladies Man is currently 25th in the order of entry, and Athabascan (26), United Nations (27), Kalapour (28) and Mostly Cloudy (29) are also looking for the golden ticket.
Athabascan is short enough in the betting, but is the horse to beat. After winning a couple of nice races over 2400m in Sydney, John O’Shea brought his stayer to Melbourne but forgot to bring any luck with him. He drew wide in the Bart Cummings and his race was over after being forced to go so far back, but hit the line very well. Then he was well backed in the Moonee Valley Cup but it was a horror watch for supporters when barrier one played against him. He should get clear air here, and every chance to win.
Kalapour is another Sydney-sider racing in great heart, and he just never runs a bad race. He was good in defeat last time out when third in the St Leger at Randwick, giving the winner Land Legend 5kg’s and second-placed Cleveland 2kg’s. We saw Cleveland come out and win the Moonee Valley Cup that Athabascan was so unlucky in. There won’t be much between those two.
United Nations comes out the Caulfield Cup, where he was given a great ride from a wide barrier, but circumstances dictated that he was sitting too close to a fierce speed. While he weakened to finish eight lengths from Without A Fight and West Wind Blows, he also beat home half the field. He’ll be in the game.
Mostly Cloudy was too good for United Nations when they met earlier this campaign, and he has also met Athabascan twice as well – the latter looks to be the superior horse though.
Selections: 1.Athabascan 2.Kalapour 3.United Nations 4.Mostly Cloudy
Cameron rose's Tip
ATHABASCAN
WIN
Lexus Archer Stakes 04 November 13:00
Win
Place
* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds
FURPHY SPRINT - 1100m, Flemington R3
The Furphy Sprint sees the mares clash over 1100m down the famous Flemigton straight.
Rose Quartz is simply itching to win again, and may well do so here. She’s the opposite of Zapateo in that the dryer the better for her. The state of the track may well decide this race between these two. Rose Quartz is just so honest and loves the straight, but keeps finding one better. It may well be her fate again.
Dancing Alone is the improving mare of the field, with six wins from seven career starts. Yes, she’s been racing in lesser benchmark grade, but has been carrying big weights and winning in style, and has had a taste of the straight already. She’s in the game.
Lempicka looks big odds for a horse putting a picket fence together. Similar to Dancing Alone, she was also winning with big weights in inferior company, but made the jump to black type level last start, beating another winning machine in Viviane.
Selections: 1.Rose Quartz 2.Dancing Alone 3.Lempicka 4.Hypothetical
Cameron rose's Tip
ROSE QUARTZ
WIN
Furphy Sprint 04 November 13:40
Win
Place
* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds
RISING FAST STAKES - 1200m, Flemington R4
The Rising Fast looks a competitive race down the Flemington “straight six”, with a nice mix of older types and up-and-comers.
Chain of Lightning may have been better suited to the 1400m race later in the day, or even the mares sprint over 1100m, so we have to respect the fact that she is in this race instead. Carrying 58kg’s against the males won’t be easy, and she hasn’t won for over a year, but she is a classy mare that has been poorly placed in that time. She was never going to beat the likes of Asfoora or Uncommon James over 1100m at Caulfield last time, but this set-up can be more to her liking now.
Triple Missile is the favourite, after finishing second in this race last year. He was second in the Gilgai Stakes first-up, behind the flying Star Patrol, and looked the winner before that horse kicked away late. The danger for him will be getting too far back from barrier two, but James McDonald should be able to negotiate that.
It’sourtime is always honest in these lower Group or Listed races, especially at Flemington. He’s been in the quinella six times from eight starts at 1200m here, and is sure to be somewhere thereabouts at a good price.
Spacewalk gave punters heartburn at Caulfield last start, when he hit the front and looked the winner, only to be gobbled up by Doull late. Some will say that 1200m is as far as he wants it, and he’ll be feeling it late. His only previous straight experience was running second to Buenos Noches here over 1100m, which is good form indeed.
Selections: 1.Chain of Lightning 2.Triple Missile 3.It’sourtime 4.Spacewalk
Cameron rose's Tip
CHAIN OF LIGHTNING
EACH-WAY
Racing And Sports Rising Fast Stakes 04 November 14:20
Win
Place
* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds
WAKEFUL STAKES - 2000m, Flemington R5
The Wakeful Stakes is the last lead-up for fillies on an Oaks path, and many a smart one has done the double over the years.
Zardozi is the short-priced favourite after her dominant win in the Edward Manifold last start. She was double figures there, albeit with some good backing on the day, having come off two runs where not everything went her way. It wasn’t a classic edition of the Manifold by any means, and the form out of it has been suspect, but this is not a vintage Wakeful either.
Zardozi also has to give the field weight, which isn’t always easy for fillies at these longer trips, and is a month between runs stepping up to 2000m from a mile. She’ll need to be good.
Konasana has taken a different path to Zardozi, with a good bank of fitness under her belt. She was solid in the Ethereal last start, which might prove to be the superior form reference, and is drawn to get the run of the race. The biggest problem is Jamie Kah, who can’t get out of her own way at the moment.
Harlow Mist beat Konasana at Flemington two starts back, when they clashed over 1800m, but meets her a kilo worse for that performance now. She’s been back up to Sydney for a tickover run, and will no doubt be ready to shine now with Blake Shinn in the saddle.
Aethelflaed could be the value runner, even if no-one will be able to pronounce her name. Matty Smith only travels smart horses down from Sydney, and his partnership with Damien Oliver over the years has been supreme. She’s trying to come a long way in a short period of time, but the Oaks path is often like that.
Selections: 1.Konasana 2.Harlow Mist 3.Aethelflaed 4.Zardozi
Cameron rose's Tip
KONASANA
EACH-WAY
Tab Wakeful Stakes 04 November 15:00
Win
Place
* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds
COOLMORE STUD STAKES - 1200m, Flemington R6
The Coolmore has become the race to win for three-year-old colts looking to establish themselves as a big money stallion, although a few fillies have come along over the years to spoil the party.
Cylinder is the horse to beat, and how could he not be? He won his first two races this prep while still building his fitness, and really should have won the Golden Rose if not for a bit of bad luck at the wrong stage. He followed that up by being beaten just over a length in the world’s sprint, The Everest. Ahead of him that day were Think About It, I Wish I Win, Private Eye and In Secret (who won this race last year). It’s a murderer’s row of sprinters, and now Cylinder drops back to his own age group.
It might be tough to swallow $3.50 in a 19 horse field thundering down the Flemington straight, especially for a horse that hasn’t raced there, but Cylinder might just be better than them.
Stretan Angel appeals as the main danger, despite her $13 quote, given her last two starts down the straight. She simply savaged the line from near last in the Cap D’Antibes, and followed it up with a gusty win in the Danehill when ridden more forward. In a bigger field, she might be ridden more quietly, which can allow her to be more dynamic.
I Am Unstoppable was second to Stretan Angel in the Danehill, but had his chance. He’s a smart colt, who was close up to Cylinder in the Vain Stakes back in August, so he’s entitled to be in the mix.
King’s Gambit disappointed down the straight when sent out $2.90 favourite in the Posiedon, well beaten by Archo Nacho and I Am Unstoppable. But he led on that occasion, when he is far better off taking a sit, which he did to win the Roman Consul at Rosehill last start.
The best bolter is Butch Cassidy, who has been just shaded by Cylinder at his last two starts, in the Golden Rose and Run to the Rose. He just keeps racing well, and can be a presence at 40-1.
Golden Slipper winner Shinzo is in the market, but is a hard horse to have, despite his Everest run where he was good enough. He’s had a poorly executed preparation, but you do have to trust Chris Waller to have him right on the day, and James McDonald is now onboard. It wouldn’t surprise to see him improve lengths.
Selections: 1.Cylinder 2.Stretan Angel 3.King’s Gambit 4.Butch Cassidy
Cameron rose's Tip
CYLINDER
WIN
Coolmore Stud Stakes 04 November 15:40
Win
Place
* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds
VICTORIA DERBY - 2500m, Flemington R7
The 2500m start at Flemington, particularly in the Derby with young horses tackling a long distance for the first time, is just about the most crucial barrier draw in Australia. Drawing poorly means you are either working out wide around a long turn, or getting too far back to catch those getting a cosier run.
This year the three favourites, Riff Rocket, Apulia and Verdad, have all drawn well in gates three, four and five. Let the best horse win.
Riff Rocket has certainly put in the best performance this season, of any horse contesting this race. That was in the Super Impose at Flemington two starts back when he put six lengths on the field. A little of his gloss came off in the Norman Robinson last start, when getting rolled at $1.28 after not being able to catch Sunsource in a slowly run race.
Riff Rocket is by American Pharoah, who was well credentialed at 2000m-2400m, but out of a sprinting mare. If it a ferociously run Derby, or even a true test of stamina, he might start feeling the pinch late, and end up showing us that 1600m-2000m is his go in the future.
Apulia has finished behind Riff Rocket twice this prep, by a combined 10 lengths, so has some ground to make up. He, however, is truly bred to stay a trip, being by a Melbourne Cup winner in Fiorente out of a High Chaparral mare. We saw his endurance qualities come to the fore last week in the Vase at Moonee Valley – in a truly run race, he powered away from Verdad and Air Assault.
Apulia is likely the better stayer, but Riff Rocket is the better horse. Which one will win out over 2500m given both are drawn to perfection?
Verdad is also in with a chance, but needs a more slowly run Derby than we might get. He couldn’t go with Apulia after setting that tempo in the Vase, and also isn’t bred as stoutly as that galloper.
Roguery could be the bolter, if one is to pop up at odds, coming out of the provincials but with two wins against older horses at 2000m. He’s fit enough, has some level of ability, and is drawn to do no work whatsoever.
Selections: 1.Apulia 2.Riff Rockett 3.Verdad 4.Roguery
Cameron rose's Tip
APULIA
EACH-WAY
Penfolds Victoria Derby 04 November 16:20
Win
Place
* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds
EMPIRE ROSE STAKES - 1600m, Flemington R8
The Empire Rose gives the mares a chance to secure Group 1 glory over the Flemington mile, and this year’s edition looks incredibly even across the main handful of chances.
Princess Grace has been a model of consistency this campaign, with three second’s and a fourth. She’s been matching motors with some of the best horses in Australia, finishing second to Fangirl in the Winx, second to Mr Brightside in the Memsie, and fourth to Mr Brightside in the Makybe Diva at this track and distance. She then looked to be gifted the Blazer Stakes dropping back to mares grade and jumping at $1.65, but couldn’t reel in Life Lessons.
It was disappointing to anyone that piled in at the shorts, or was anchoring Princess Grace in multi’s across the weekend, but she was hardly disgraceful while still being below her best. If you forgive her that defeat, and go on her previous form, then she is the one to beat.
Atishu is the stablemate of Princess Grace, and is the mare James McDonald is riding. Does that give us a clue as to who the stable, or at least the jockey, thinks is the horse to beat? While better with the sting out, Atishu is still effective on a good track, but is far from the most reliable horse getting around. There is a lot of speed in this race on paper, and you can easily see her being the one to emerge from the pack and sail by them all, just as she did in the Queen of the Turf at Randwick earlier this year.
Alcohol Free is on the back-up after running fourth in The Invitation last week, in a blanket finish alongside smart mares like Espiona, Ruthless Dame and Magic Time. Before that she was outclassed in The Everest, and was chasing Think About It home in the Premiere, beaten just under three lengths. She’s ready for the mile now, and draws to get the run of the race.
Hope In Your Heart is a game mare that has run so well in so many big races over the last year or so. She was second to Atishu in the Queen of the Turf, has run fourth in a Golden Eagle, Doncaster Mile and Coolmore Handicap. She much prefers ground with a bit of give in it, rather than firm footing, but she’ll give her all and be somewhere in the mix as always.
Wishlor Lass is the mare trying to come up to the level of the aforementioned horses. It’s a big step now, but she couldn’t be more primed after three wins in a row, and you can never write off a mare that just keeps improving and winning.
Selections: 1.Princess Grace 2.Atishu 3.Alcohol Free 4.Hope In Your Heart
Cameron rose's Tip
PRINCESS GRACE
EACH-WAY
Tab Empire Rose Stakes 04 November 17:00
Win
Place
* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds
THE DAMIEN OLIVER - 1400m, Flemington R9
It won’t be an easy assignment to get out in the last, if struggling to find a winner on Derby Day. We’re faced with a big field and a tricky 1400m affair.
Tamerlane is the favourite, having won at this track and distance last time out, albeit in what looked to be a weaker race than this. It was his birthday that day, the only leader in the race, and he did as he liked in the lead and never looked like losing. He won’t be afforded the same luxury here, but James McDonald will surely be trying to hold onto the lead at all costs from barrier one.
Here To Shock looks a nice value play. He performed below expectation in the Toorak Handicap last start, fading out of the race to finish 10 lengths from the winner, but if you forgive that run his previous form was excellent for a race like this. He made Antino beat him at Sandown, and before that he gave 9.5kg’s when second to Devoted in a good little form race at Caulfield. He’ll get the run of the race from gate four.
Kalino was third behind Here To Shock and Devoted in that Caulfield race, and has since won over this course and distance himself. He meets Here To Shock 2kg’s worse for finishing behind him that day, but shapes as the horse that can come sweeping into the race if they overdo it up front or the middle of the track is the place to be.
What to make of the enigma that is Ayrton? His first-up record is superb, but he has so often raced without the same brilliance second-up. Based on his own profile he’s hard to launch into, but despite all his troubles over the years, he still might be the best horse in this race.
Selections: 1.Here To Shock 2.Tamerlane 3.Kalino 4.Ayrton
Cameron rose's Tip
HERE TO SHOCK
EACH-WAY
The Damien Oliver 04 November 17:40
Win
Place
* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds
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