Oaks Day at Flemington: feature race tips and previews

07 NOVEMBER 2023
Author

CAMERON ROSE

EDITOR

KENNEDY VICTORIAN OAKS - 2500m, Flemington R8

The Victorian Oaks is the feature race on Thursday of Melbourne Cup week, day three of the week long battle against the bookies after Derby day on Saturday and Cup day on Tuesday.

The early market has pitched two favourites against each other, a classic battle between a classy filly that will race on the speed but may not have the most endurance, vs the stronger stayer that will be trying to chase her down from the middle of the pack.

Zardozi is the favourite, and the most likely to run out a strong 2500m based on her breeding and performances to date. After a couple of moderate runs in Sydney where she didn’t have the best luck, she’s turned a corner since coming to Melbourne, exploding out of the pack to win the Edward Manifold in early October, and following it up with a fine performance in the Wakeful on Saturday, where she just failed to run down the leader.

She’s drawn well enough in six, will meet all of her rivals from the Wakeful better at the weights than she did there, and is the rightful favourite.

Amazonian Lass led that Wakeful field along, and was able to hang on. It was a good day to lead at Flemington on Derby Day, with several of them winning. She may not get all those favours again, especially with a bit more speed engaged here.

Aethelflaed was the eye-catcher out wide in the Wakeful, running into fourth from near-last, looking like she can’t wait to get to 2500m. Barrier 12 is very tough from the 2500m start at Flemington, so she’ll have to be back in the field again, and that could be the difference between winning and losing.

Tropical Squall is the second favourite, and may challenge Zardozi for market-elect come race time. She’s had a terrific campaign, winning against the older horses in benchmark grade first-up, before running third in the Tea Rose and then winning the Group 1 Flight Stakes. She was then brave in defeat under 59kg’s in the Ethereal, just getting nabbed in the shadows of the post after setting too strong a speed.

Adam Hyeronimus has been in great form, and he should have learnt from that ride. Tropical Squall draws three here, which will give him every favour to control the race. If horse and jockey can combine for steady enough fractions throughout the race, her class should be enough to take her to victory.

Basilinna was a fast-finishing third in the Ethereal, and has finally drawn a gate after jumping from wide barriers at her last two starts. She savaged the line last start, and should get a cosy run here, so she is certainly a value danger.

Selections: 1.Basilinna 2.Tropical Squall 3.Zardozi 4.Aethelflaed

Author
Cameron rose's Tip

BASILINNA

EACH-WAY

Kennedy Oaks 09 November 17:10
7. Basilinna Playup
Win
Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

THE BACHELORS RED ROSES STAKES - 1100m, Flemington R7

Sixteen fillies, several of which having only had three or less starts, and most of which are likely still untapped, tackle the Flemington 1100m. Good luck punters.

Cigar Flick has been racing very well in slightly stronger grade than what she meets here. Her runs have been well spaced through the spring, running just once in each of August, September, October and now November. Her form behind Tiz Invincible is compelling enough, but her last start fourth in the Danehill behind Stretan Angel and I Am Unstoppable has her as the one to beat here. Both of those horses performed admirably in the Coolmore on Saturday, with I Am Unstoppable running a superb second behind Ozzmosis.

The favourite Mumbai Muse will have admirers. She was running in the same Sydney races as Cigar Flick, with not a lot between them, and she got her win in the Brian Crowley last start.

 

Every few years or so, the Adelaide horses take the Melbourne Cup carnival by storm, and they look to be having a good one this year. Aviatress could be the next cab off the rank, unbeaten from two starts in the city of churches, with some solid winning margins and good form behind her. It will be a surprise if she doesn’t measure up.

Inhibitions has been up for a while, but running very honestly in races that should be considered stronger than this one, despite there being a bit of depth here. Can she go to the well one more time? The outside draw should help her later in the week.

Saltaire was the run of the race, and arguably one of the runs of the day at Moonee Valley last time out. Before that, she had run very well at this track and distance in the Cap D’Antibes, coming from last but leaving herself too much to do. She couldn’t quite match motors with Stretan Angel there, but she can be in the finish here.

She’sallshenanigans won the Cap D’Antibes, and has since run okay but slightly below expectation at the Valley and Caulfield. Perhaps she’s looking for the straight track again, given she is trained at Flemington? She should at least go in the quaddie at double figure odds.

Selections: 1.Cigar Flick 2.Aviatress 3.Saltaire 4.Mumbai Muse

Author
Cameron rose's Tip

CIGAR FLICK

EACH-WAY

The Bachelors Red Roses Stakes 09 November 16:30
9. Cigar Flick Playup
Win
Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

INGLIS BRACELET - 1600m, Flemington R4

The Inglis Bracelet has two mares well clear of the others on ratings, and a third horse that isn’t at their level yet but could be on the way. All three dominate the betting in this race.

Roots is the favourite, having won the race last year after being backed into white-hot favouritism at $1.65. She was coming into this off two wins and a second back then, albeit in lesser grade than she is running in these days, whereas this year she’s been in stronger company but finishing down the track. She was still very good first-up, but was only fair last time out.

Foxy Frida will be on the quick back-up from Saturday if she runs here, having never come into it in the Empire Rose Stakes. That was the race where Pride of Jenni opened up a 15 length lead over most of the field, breaking it open and never being caught. They are generally funny races when that happens, and it’s hard to read too much into them.

If Roots and Foxy Frida both present at their best, there is little between them, as evidenced when they met in Brisbane earlier this year at Group 1 level. They both ran as well as each other.

Climbing Star is the fresh blood on the scene. Although she’s only won the one race, she’s been showing a great deal of promise behind good horses at her last two starts. Two back, she was beaten two lengths behind Life Lessons in the Blazer Stakes, and we’ve seen that mare finish second to Amelia’s Jewel and third in the aforementioned Empire Rose Stakes this prep. Last time out, Climbing Star just couldn’t reel in Buffalo River at Caulfield, in what was his second win in a row.

Chandon Burj could be the value play if looking for a bit of odds. She was good in second behind Junipal in the Seymour Cup, and before that chased promising stayer First Immortal home over 2000m. She’s rock-hard fit, and could make her presence felt for a stable that can produce a knockout winner; they are in form after a double at Flemington on Cup day.

Selections: 1.Climbing Star 2.Roots 3.Foxy Frida 4.Chandon Burj

Author
Cameron rose's Tip

CLIMBING STAR

EACH-WAY

Inglis Bracelet 09 November 14:30
6. Climbing Star Playup
Win
Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

G.H MUMM CENTURY STAKES - 1000m, Flemington R5

The Century Stakes sees a field of handy sprinters tackle the Flemington short course of 1000m, with fireworks sure to take place.

Najem Suhail went like the clappers in the Rising Fast Stakes on Derby Day, setting that Group 2 field alight when opening up a sizeable lead under the riding of Zac Spain. He went down swinging too, beaten half a length by Spacewalk. Damian Lane will not likely employ the same frenetic tactics here, but will still lead and could run them ragged from the front over a shorter distance.

Spacewalk will be the one to beat again. He’s had a fantastic 2023, with four wins and four placings from 10 starts, in Queensland, Victoria and NSW, racing at a remarkable eight tracks. He’s in career-best form, and could have two wins in five days on the quick back-up.

Generation may well have forgotten how to win, not having done so since February of last year. He won four of his first six career starts, but is none for 13 since. All but one of those have been at Group level, while this is a Listed race, and the weakest he’s contested in all that time. He has to stand up now.

Cannonball is coming back from a horrid UK campaign, where he disgraced himself in two runs at Group 1 level. What he faces here is not that level of competition, nor like in the Galaxy when he was third to Mariamia and Uncommon James earlier this year. The last time he saw the straight resulted in a third to Giga Kick and Buenos Noches, which is clearly good enough.

Athelric was second to Cannonball in the McCarten Stakes earlier this year, and has been 4-5 lengths behind the absolute A-grade sprinters in two runs this spring. He was severely outgraded there, but this is a more suitable assignment, although he was fifth in this race last year off a similar lead-up.

Selections: 1.Najem Suhail 2.Spacewalk 3.Generation 4.Cannonball

Author
Cameron rose's Tip

NAJEM SUHAIL

EACH-WAY

G.H. Mumm Century Stakes 09 November 15:10
10. Najem Suhail Playup
Win
Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

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