THE MELBOURNE CUP - 3200m, Flemington R7

 

1. VAUBAN: Last start form behind Kyprios is strong enough to be amongst main contenders. I’d agree the labelled “poor” performance from last years Cup is fair. Loomed to win, before petering late. Tempo was a little above average there, 2.4L+ on the RI benchmark. Placegetters came from off them, Withoutafight recording a 106.4 to victory. He is not at all a betting proposition, but I do think has to be respected.

 

2. BUCKAROO: Admittedly, I have potted BUCKAROO stepping up in trip, however concede the weight to distance suitability was far too high. His performance figures have and should have overshadowed other variables in concluding chances. In very good form and the Caulfield Cup is traditionally a strong reference. That being said, he tailed on this three peaks in that race and drawing out has me marking much harsher than current markets.

 

3. CIRCLE OF FIRE: Did win the Sydney Cup in similar prep set-up, however completely different figures this time in. Ordinary form and I can mark him triple figures in this.

 

4. WARP SPEED: If anything, he gets better over further, however the Caulfield Cup run is the one I have weighted more closely and not enough there to consider.

 

5. KOVALICA: He reads -11.8 margin to the winner last start, however the winner was Via Sistina, who won by 8L. That was a freakish race, the perfect storm for the winner to put a monster figure in. Without winning, KOVALICA has put in 103.4, 103, 105.4, and 103.4, giving him one of the best base ratings coming in. He has a big asterisk next to his name for me, and with even luck in running, I am almost certain the master trainer, Waller has primed him for this.

 

6. SHARP ‘N’ SMART: Only fair in the Moonee Valley Cup and I don’t have anything on paper to give him any more attention than a glance.

 

7. JUST FINE: Didn’t come up last prep, with the Au debut prep winning the Kingston Town and subsequently the Metrop having him on the radar as stayer to keep notice on. Despite winning the Bart Cummings two back, he had all favours, and I still mark the performance as moderate.

 

8. LAND LEGEND: One of Wallers key chances, and if you asked me after the Metrop win two back, I would have had him amongst the top couple. He was average, or even poor in the Caulfield Cup and maybe you can take a few angles there. Possibly after further off the Metrop win and that was a good tightener into the Melbourne Cup. Staying reserved on him at this stage, but I do think with even luck he is somewhere in the finish.

 

9. ABSURDE: Well supported in last year’s edition and there was plenty of merit in the run. Slightly different prep into this, more miles in the legs and a week more forward, which I am anticipating makes a difference. Maps well and although better rated runners are engaged, the set up counts for a bit and I am weighting heavily to this. He is a key chance.

 

10. ATHABASCAN: Sound winner in the ATC St Leger last start but he just doesn’t have the figures to warrant too much attention here. He should be able to press up in run, and that does give some favour. Expect finishes in top half of field, but at the back of that.

 

11. KNIGHTS CHOICE: I will fall over if wins. Nearly a year since his win at Doomben and that is simply not enough for this.

 

12. OKITA SOUSHI: Trending the right way, presenting at the right time for a Cup bout. It would be a significant progression to see him win, however does set up well and is one of the only runners you could take through the Moonee Valley Cup race.

 

13. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR: Geelong Cup winner first-up in Australia, and that puts him in the headlights, with the likes of Media Puzzle, Dunaden, and Americain giving a lead to a strong form reference to the Melbourne Cup. The rating was certainly there, and I believe is one of, if not the key contender in this years edition of the Melbourne Cup.

 

14. ZARDOZI: I was bullish on her for a big prep, however she has done nothing but disappoint the pocket. The key performance to lean on is the Metrop, and does meet LAND LEGEND better at the weights from that run, the same from the Caulfield Cup run, where they finished close enough together. ZARDOZI has the superior set up here, which does hold weight of course. The Kennedy Oaks and Australian Oaks are among her best couple figures and she could comfortably record a big new peak here.

 

15. SEA KING: One Australian run in the Bendigo Cup, and it was a romp. Drawn well in barrier 1, expect top few in running, and really has to be considered as one of the key chances.

 

16. VALIANT KING: Throw at the stumps if anything. His top rating does not have him in the first half, and the barrier has magnified the thought his chances are limited.

 

17. FANCY MAN: I think he simply plugs and plugs all day. Limited dynamically and I just couldn’t make a strong enough case for him in this.

 

18. INTERPRETATION: If you like ONESMOOTHOPERATOR, you do have to have some time for INTERPRETATION, who was last years Bendigo Cup winner, going on to run 6^th in the Cup last year. He was left a little flat footed on the sprint, however did flatten out to top meet closing figures. He was also one of the biggest closers in the Melbourne Cup last year. Equicast poses some query, particularly over two miles, but is one I will certainly be having in exotics.

 

19. MANZOICE: Maybe just needs a trip like this. Past two figures not anything to suggest, however did present quite forward this time in, and maybe, just maybe, Waller has an inkling the two miles sees him shine.

 

20. MOSTLY CLOUDY: Surely not.

 

21. POSITIVITY: Peaks not close enough to top half.

 

22. SAINT GEORGE: Outside of the winner in the Moonee Valley Cup, he was the one I wanted to keep an eye on. Very lightly raced, sets up well and this is the runner I believe could do something – involving speculation rather than on the figures.

 

23. THE MAP: Qualified through the Andrew Ramsden, however nothing in the prep thus far has her close to key contenders.

 

24. TRUST IN YOU: I do believe in miracles, and I hope the stable do, too as that is what is needed.

 

SUMMARY: Whilst VAUBAN and BUCKAROO head the market, I will be looking to work around that pair with more enticing odds and pointed peaks for a few others.

ABSURDE is currently 4th in line in markets and is the one I have warmed to most, both with a more forward set up this time in and what I see as a key set up advantage to the top two.

KOVALICA comes through the hot Cox Plate and just has an incredible sense of set up and timing into this. His lead in figures are right in the mix and only needs even luck in running to be a proper key chance.

The third and final runner of interest is INTERPRETATION. I have marked equally as good as ONESMOOTHOPERATOR out of the Geelong Cup and more forward figure wise out of that than last year’s bout at the Melbourne Cup. The equicast remains some query.

TRIFECTA: 9, 5, 18, 1, 2

FIRST FOUR: 9, 5, 18, 1, 2, 14, 13