Turnbull Stakes at Flemington: feature race tips and previews

04 OCTOBER 2023
Author

CAMERON ROSE

EDITOR

TURNBULL STAKES - 2000m, Flemington R8

The Turnbull Stakes has traditionally been a fork-in-the-road race for aspirants heading toward the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, and Cox Plate, and the catalogue of true champions to have won the race is as long as any in Australian racing. The day itself is often known as “moving day” given horses should be near enough to peaking in early October, and stamping their claim for spring riches over the next six weeks.

International runners are rarely seen in the Turnbull, and two of them in the race this year means it has taken on a different complexion. They are also two of the top three favourites.

Romantic Warrior has done all of his racing in Hong Kong to this point of his career, winning three Group 1s among his 10 career wins, also running second at the highest level three times as well. The best line on his form for racing in this country is the Queen Elizabeth Cup back in April, which he won as $1.60 favourite while leaving Dubai Honour two and a half lengths in arrears – that horse was coming off two Group 1 WFA wins by a combined seven lengths in Sydney, over the likes of Anamoe and company.

Romantic Warrior is a heavily backed favourite, almost into even money, and rightly so.

A rule of thumb worth observing for when internationals run in Australia, is to back them at 2000m and beyond, and bet against them at 1600m or below. Which means the other international runner, West Wind Blows, must be taken seriously as well. His credentials aren’t as pronounced as Romantic Warrior, but he does have very good 2000m-2400m form in Europe and the UK, and while he’s never won at Group 1 level, he hasn’t been far behind some serious horses over there.

Of the local contingent, Osipenko and Soulcombe look the toughest to beat, while Gold Trip and Right You Are make appeal as blowout chances.

Osipenko has been within a length or two of Mr Brightside, Alligator Blood and Fangirl at WFA in all three starts this campaign, and they are arguably our three best mile or mile and a quarter horses right now. He drops to 56kg’s here thanks to the set weights penalties format of the race, and can’t do anything but run well from a perfect draw.

His stablemate Soulcombe also has only 56kg’s, and his two runs this prep have been a sizzling win in the Heatherlie first-up, followed by another eye-catching effort when a fast-finishing fourth in the Underwood Stakes. He could go to another level out another 200m and at Flemington, which was the scene of his career-best win.

Right You Are was just behind Soulcombe in the Underwood, and just keeps getting better and better. He’ll love the drop to 55kg’s after some of the weights he’s been carrying, and could spring a surprise the same way stablemate Smokin’ Romans did in this race last year.

Gold Trip won last year’s Melbourne Cup, finished second in the Caulfield Cup, and should have finished a length or two closer in the Cox Plate when only beaten three lengths behind Anamoe. He was superb first-up with 62kg’s, and can’t be written off.

Selections: 1.Romantic Warrior 2.West Wind Blows 3.Osipenko 4.Soulcombe

Author
Cameron rose's Tip

ROMANTIC WARRIOR

WIN

Tab Turnbull Stakes 07 October 16:25
1. Romantic Warrior Playup
Win
Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

GILGAI STAKES - 1200m, Flemington R9

You just have to love a quality sprint race down the famous Flemington straight, and the Gilgai always delivers on this day.

It’s a handy field of sprinters that have been assembled here, but there do appear to be four key winning chances.

Star Patrol is the favourite after his win in the Bobbie Lewis, defying to excellent sprinters in King of Sparta and Benedetta. It took his Flemington 1200m record to two wins and a second from four starts, with his only miss being in the Newmarket earlier this year. He looks to be reaching his peak as a five-year-old now – last time he was second-up, as he is here, he was beaten less than two lengths in the Oakleigh Plate, right behind horses like Uncommon James and Asfoora, two horses that just filled the placings behind Imperatriz last Friday.

C’est Magique has only had five career starts, running well in all of them, but her two best runs have both been down the Flemington straight. The second in the Coolmore Stud Stakes on Derby Day last year, splitting In Secret and Buenos Noches, stands out like a beacon. She was okay without raving first-up, but was off a 10 month break with only one official trial, so must surely have taken improvement. We will get a better indication of where she stacks up this Saturday.

Jigsaw started realising his potential over the summer period last season, winning five races from November through to April. He does his best work by going to the front and kicking clear around a turn, and very often that type of horse is ineffective up the Flemington straight. In his only start at the track, he sat second and never looked a winning chance, so the query must be there.

Triple Missile is a former Perth horse that has been in Victoria for a year and a half, but only had five starts here in that period. All of them have been good though, either winning or running very well at black type level, often as the best run in the race. His get-back racing pattern can present a problem, but he has raced well down the straight before, and we’ll see what he has under the hood first-up here.

If there’s a blow-out chance, it could be the perennially underrated Ashford Street or the old warhorse and track specialist Zoutori. And what to make of Showmanship, who has only had three runs in the last three years? Could he win the race first-up in more than 12 months?

Selections: 1.Triple Missile 2.Star Patrol 3.C’est Magique 4.Jigsaw

Author
Cameron rose's Tip

TRIPLE MISSILE

EACH-WAY

Gilgai Stakes 07 October 17:05
11. Triple Missile Playup
Win
Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

THE BART CUMMINGS - 2500m, Flemington R7

The Bart Cummings is always a fascinating staying contest, and has become well targeted over the years since prizemoney was increased and the winner was awarded direct entry into the Melbourne Cup.

The funny part about this year’s race is that the two favourites, First Immortal and Carini, aren’t even in the field yet, given they are the first two emergencies.

First Immortal, second emergency, is the current favourite. He’s just turned four, but has won seven of 13 career starts, and has actually won seven of nine at 1700m or beyond. He only won a benchmark 78 last start, but did so by a widening three and a half lengths with 63kg’s on his back. He’s a clean-winded staying talent, and hopefully he gets in so we can see how he measures up against some hardy competitors.

Carini is also a fresh horse on the scene, a lightly-raced European that is having his first preparation in Australia. He caught the eye first-up over an unsuitable 1400m, and followed up next start by putting away a handy field over 1700m as the heavily backed favourite. He’s quickly up to 2500m now, trying to get his way into the Melbourne Cup as a lightweight chance with only 50kg’s allocated to him at this point in time.

Future History has been scratched from winnable races a couple of times in the last few weeks, including the Group 1 Metropolitan at Randwick last Saturday. A bit older than the two favourites, he’s another emerging staying type, looking to be tested beyond 2100m for the first time, but appeals as the classic Maher/Eustace improver.

Athabascan is the in-form rock-hard fit stayer of the field, with two wins at 2400m up in Sydney leading into this. He seems to have really come into his own this season, and has been full of style in those wins, so deserves at crack at this type of race, but has to do it with 57kg’s now.

Goldman was a long-time Melbourne Cup favourite after his domination of the Roy Higgins earlier this year, which secured him entry into the race that stops a nation. He hasn’t needed to be peaking yet, over 1600m and 2000m first- and second-up, and has been okay in both of those runs, but we’d like to see a bit more now.

Serpentine has had admirers at his first two runs, but was comfortably handled by Athabascan first-up and was only plain second-up at this track and distance. He is another that needs to put his hand up now, if he is to be taken seriously going forward.

Alaskan God is a WA Derby winner that looks to be back in form after a little period in the wilderness, and looks worth keeping an eye on. Amade is a 10-year-old now, but might not be the worst bolter going around in the race.

Selections: 1.Carini 2.First Immortal 3.Future History 4.Athabascan

Author
Cameron rose's Tip

CARINI

EACH-WAY

The Lexus Bart Cummings 07 October 15:50
17. Carini Playup
Win
Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

ROSE OF KINGSTON STAKES - 1400m, Flemington R6

The Rose of Kingston, for mares over 1400m, must surely gives us the bet of the day at Flemington.

Princess Grace is around the $1.70 mark now, and might only get tighter from here given her form for this type of race is simply impeccable. Her first two starts this prep were both in Group 1 WFA contests at 1400m, where she was beaten less than half a length by both Fangirl and Mr Brightside, two of the best sprinter-miler horses in Australia. And in both races, she was not in the best part of the track.

Last time out, here at Flemington, she could only run fourth behind Mr Brightside, Alligator Blood and Osipenko, beaten two and a half lengths behind an elite trio of horses. Alligator Blood has since won the Underwood and Osipenko is second favourite in the Turnbull. Princess Grace would almost have to fall over not to win.

Life Lessons and Skew Whiff look the two obvious dangers, if there are going to be some, while Wrote To Arataki and Waltz On By have some claims at a big price.

Life Lessons brings Amelia’s Jewel form to the race, having finished second to her at this track and distance last time out. She’s hasn’t won a race this year, but has chased some good types in Nugget and Foxy Frida, and is usually competitive.

Skew Whiff is a Kiwi mare whose last four starts have been either at WFA or Group 1 level over in New Zealand and her form through Dragon Leap says she can have a say. We’ve seen that horse run well in okay races over here, but she has to carry weight here, so we’ll see how she stacks up.

Wrote To Arataki flopped in the Let’s Elope behind Amelia’s Jewel and Life Lessons, but our fathers always taught us to forgive a good horse a bad run. Mares grade, 1400m, Flemington is usually a good set-up for her.

Waltz On By was good late, when resuming over 1200m at Caulfield. First-up has never been her go (4: 0-0-0), but getting to 1400m second-up is a beautiful profile for her, and she is unbeaten from three starts at the 1300m-1400m distance range.

Selections: 1.Princess Grace 2.Life Lessons 3.Wrote To Arataki 4.Waltz On By

Author
Cameron rose's Tip

PRINCESS GRACE

EACH-WAY

Furphy Rose Of Kingston Stakes 07 October 15:15
3. Princess Grace Playup
Win
Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

DANEHILL STAKES - 1200m, Flemington R5

The Danehill gives us a look at some of the Coolmore Stud Stakes hopefuls, at what will be their last chance to show their straight track wares before Derby Day.

I Am Unstoppable is the favourite after two eye-catching runs to begin his preparation. Cylinder has franked the form all through the spring, and this well-bred colt does look poised to register his first win as a three-year-old.

Archo Nacho did beat I Am Unstoppable in the Poseidon last start, and he was only first-up there, so was a run behind the other horse.

Both horses ran well in the Poseidon, as they must have in order to quinella it, but it was a funny race in some ways – the first four horses home drew the four inside barriers and those more to the middle of the track made no impression at all. We’ve already seen two of those that failed in the Poseidon, The Instructor and Maharba, come out and subsequently win. It might be that those that ran poorly there are the ones to watch, and those that had the rails run might be under the odds next time.

Kandinsky Abstract was one horse stuck out in the muck, having drawn widest on that occasion, and he may well present as over the odds now. We’ve seen Chris Waller win these type of races at a big price before, and must also note the crucial gear change of blinkers going on for the first time.

Stretan Angel looks to be a filly going places. She’s got a booming finish on her, and is somewhat reminiscent of September Run in her three-year-old season, the filly that loved the straight and would finish over the top of her rivals. She’ll be a serious threat.

The Golden Rose is always the hottest three-year-old form to follow each October, and Don Corleone will be the first one to test it this year. He was beaten around two lengths in both it and the Run to the Rose, without ever threatening to win, and that sort of form usually holds up in lesser company. He looks a big price if he handles the straight, remembering his stablemate King’s Gambit never looked that comfortable in the Poseidon.

Cigar Flick also brings Sydney form to the race, having finished behind Tiz Invincible in both the Rosebud and Furious Stakes up there. It’s good form, and she also has to be in the mix somewhere, in what should be a race of several chances.

Selections: 1.Stretan Angel 2.Kandinsky Abstract 3.I Am Unstoppable 4.Archo Nacho

Author
Cameron rose's Tip

STRETAN ANGEL

EACH-WAY

World Pool Danehill Stakes 07 October 14:40
9. Stretan Angel Playup
Win
Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

EDWARD MANIFOLD STAKES - 1600m, Flemington R4

The Edward Manifold pits the three-year-old fillies against each other over 1600m, with no real standout among them.

Legacies maintains favouritism, despite being beaten at even-money in the Exford Plate last start. She appeared to have every chance there, but the stewards report does not a slow recovery so she may not have been at her best. Another concern is that the gloss has come off her first-up win in the McNeil when splitting Veight and Little Brose – both horses have since failed, putting a query over that form.

Nodachi beat Legacies home in the Exford, finishing only a length behind the winner Griff, the colt that has since come out and won the Stutt Stakes. Nodachi also wasn’t far behind Legacies in a maiden earlier this year, and strikes as an honest type.

De Sonic Boom is building to a win, quite literally. She has finished fourth, third and second in her three runs this campaign, all in good races, and that Charm Stone/Inhibitions form is proving strong. If she can run out a strong 1600m, which is a query on breeding grounds, she looks the one to beat.

Poifect was just behind De Sonic Boom last start, but now meets her 2.5kg’s worse. That was only her second race-start though, so she will surely take vast improvement for the experience, and the heavy market support suggest she is a very nice filly in the making.

Konasana might be the surprise packet at a price, which is a bit of a theme on Saturday for the Chris Waller runners. He is generally very selective with which horses he brings to Melbourne, with key targets in mind. She was pleasing at Flemington last start behind an unbeaten John Sargent filly, and that 1800m seasoning will hold her in good stead for dropping back to a mile.

Selections: 1.De Sonic Boom 2.Poifect 3.Legacies 4.Konasana

Author
Cameron rose's Tip

DE SONIC BOOM

EACH-WAY

Tab Edward Manifold Stakes 07 October 14:05
1. De Sonic Boom Playup
Win
Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

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