Victoria Derby: Tips and Best Bets

31 OCTOBER 2024
Author

ADAM CURKPATRICK

RACING CENTRAL FOUNDER

The Victoria Derby is the richest race for Spring three-year olds, and one of the most intriguing form races over the carnival. The step to 2500m casts query and speculation, with the best figures coming into the race not necessarily the strongest reference.

VICTORIA DERBY - 2500m, Flelmington R7

 

EL CASTELLO crosses the border looking to make it five on the bounce, after another solid win in the Spring Championship.

 

He has gone from strength to strength, moving from maiden company, through a Midway, before dominating in a top 10 figure (101.8) in the Gloaming (over 1800m) and then taking out the Spring Champion.

 

His rating slightly tailed there (95.2), mostly due to a slow tempo, however it does leave me slightly reserved given his set up, both from the barrier and to 2500m.

 

I believe we can find better value in the market and have gone to a race I was almost certain wouldn’t be looking at to find a Derby winner.

 

Adelaide form is generally a little overlooked and I believe that to be the case here. GOLDRUSH GURU was dominant in the Hill Smith Stakes, and whilst has to take a significant step, I think he can off what he produced there (95.8).

 

His only two blemishes on his page this prep (if you can call 2nd placings blemishes) came with excuses, being victim to a very slow tempo prior to the Hill Smith Stakes win and giving the eventual winner 6kg before that.

 

Kah will need a little bit of luck early to find a back, but with that I believe the SA local, Perks “Guru” breeding will see him fighting out the finish with key chances.

Author
Adam Curkpatrick's Tip

GOLDRUSH GURU

WIN

Penfolds Victoria Derby 02 November 16:20
4. Goldrush Guru Playup
Win
Place

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

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