The favourite here is Alligator Blood, and his only two tries at this distance range were last spring when he was fifth in both this race and the Cox Plate, so he is yet to place at 2000m. His win in the Underwood Stakes last start, over 1800m, was visually strong enough to suggest that an extra furlong should be within his ability given he worked a bit on a slow speed early, and then was perfectly ridden to score, but he only had the 10^th quickest last 400m and 200m.

Duais caught the eye for third in the Underwood, and there have been hints all year that the dual Group 1 WFA winner may be close to producing her best, but are we waiting for Godot? From gate 10 she’ll once again get back and have to run on, a scenario preferred at Flemington rather than Caulfield. Still, she’s clearly got the class.

Just Fine is the fresh horse on the scene, tackling weight-for-age for the first time. This is still his first preparation in Australia, a campaign in which he has won all three races, including the Group 1 Metropolitan over 2400m in course record time. He’ll go forward to stalk the favourite and be strong at the end when Alligator Blood is potentially wilting.

Of the rest, Nonconformist has the most runs on the board at this level, given he ran second in this race two years ago splitting Probabeel and Zaaki, has finished second in a Caulfield Cup, and beat home Duais at WFA when second to Without A Fight in Queensland back in June.

Selections: 1.Just Fine 2.Duais 3.Alligator Blood 4.Nonconformist