Victoria Derby: Flemington 2500m

Race Overview

date Sat 02 Nov 2024
track Flemington
distance 2500m
conditions Set Weights, 3yo
status Group 1
prizemoney $2,000,000

The Victoria Derby is one of the oldest races in Australia, first run in 1855, six years before the first Melbourne Cup. Like many of Victoria’s famous races, Phar Lap won one, in 1929, and he was followed by other famous names such as Tulloch (1957), Tobin Bronze (1965), Dulcify (1978), Mahogany (1993) and Elvestroem (2003).

Not every three-year-old has the constitution to win at 2500m so early in their career, and periodically there are calls for the race to be reduced to 2000m. It is true that some winners fade away, but that is true of many two- and three-year-old Group 1 races regardless of distance, and many still go onto be competitive as older horses.

The three key lead-ups to a Victoria Derby are the Vase at Moonee Valley, run a week earlier over 2040m, the Norman Robinson over 2000m at Caulfield a week before that, and the Spring Champion up in Sydney, also at 2000m.

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2023 VICTORIA DERBY PREVIEW

Riff Rocket has certainly put in the best performance this season, of any horse contesting this race. That was in the Super Impose at Flemington two starts back when he put six lengths on the field. A little of his gloss came off in the Norman Robinson last start, when getting rolled at $1.28 after not being able to catch Sunsource in a slowly run race.

Riff Rocket is by American Pharoah, who was well credentialed at 2000m-2400m, but out of a sprinting mare. If it a ferociously run Derby, or even a true test of stamina, he might start feeling the pinch late, and end up showing us that 1600m-2000m is his go in the future.

Apulia has finished behind Riff Rocket twice this prep, by a combined 10 lengths, so has some ground to make up. He, however, is truly bred to stay a trip, being by a Melbourne Cup winner in Fiorente out of a High Chaparral mare. We saw his endurance qualities come to the fore last week in the Vase at Moonee Valley – in a truly run race, he powered away from Verdad and Air Assault.

Apulia is likely the better stayer, but Riff Rocket is the better horse. Which one will win out over 2500m given both are drawn to perfection?

Verdad is also in with a chance, but needs a more slowly run Derby than we might get. He couldn’t go with Apulia after setting that tempo in the Vase, and also isn’t bred as stoutly as that galloper.

Roguery could be the bolter, if one is to pop up at odds, coming out of the provincials but with two wins against older horses at 2000m. He’s fit enough, has some level of ability, and is drawn to do no work whatsoever.

Selections: 1.Apulia 2.Riff Rockett 3.Verdad 4.Roguery

Author
Cameron rose's Tip

APULIA

EACH-WAY

Penfolds Victoria Derby 04 November 16:20
1. Apulia
Win 4.40
Place 1.55

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

Past Winners Of The Victoria Derby

YEAR HORSE JOCKEY TRAINERS
2023 Riff Rocket James McDonald Chris Waller
2022 Manzoice Mick Dee Chris Waller
2021 Hitotsu John Allen Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
2020 Johnny Get Angry Lachlan King Denis Pagan
2019 Warning Damien Oliver Anthony Freedman
2018 Extra Brut John Allen Darren Weir
2017 Ace High Tye Angland David Payne
2016 Prized Icon Glyn Schofield James Cummings
2015 Tarzino Craig Newitt Mick Price
2014 Preferment Damien Oliver Chris Waller
2013 Polanski Hugh Bowman Robbie Laing
2012 Fiveandahalfstar Damien Oliver Anthony Cummings
2011 Sangster Hugh Bowman Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young
2010 Lion Tamer Hugh Bowman Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman

2023 VICTORIA DERBY REPLAY