Ciaron Maher Stable Mail: 13.05.23

STABLE MAIL
11 MAY 2023

We have a strong team of runners across four states this weekend, with a few we think may surprise at odds. Promises Kept and Ain’t He Grand will look to give us a clean sweep of the Adelaide Carnival feature races, whilst a trio of runners will look to book their place in the Melbourne Cup, stepping out in the Andrew Ramsden over 2800m at Flemington.

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Flemington Runners

RACE 2VRC Member Lisa Parnes Plate, 1400m

4. Counttheheadlights | J: Michael Dee

Counttheheadlights returns here after what was a disappointing first-up run, albeit the shorter trip and state of the track were to his disadvantage. He’s been given a month to recover, and has worked well in the lead-up to this. Back onto a good track and from barrier 9, Mick Dee will look to be positive from the gates with Eye Of The Eagle, Private Jumbo and Deekay likely to cross and kick up from the inside gate respectively. It’s an open race and with conditions to suit, he wouldn’t surprise running top three.

DANGERS: 1. LOUNGE BAR RUBI, 2. CASTILLIAN, 5. DEEKAY, 7. EYE OF THE EAGLE, 8. PRIVATE JUMBO

STABLE TIP

Place
13 May 12:30
Vrc Member Lisa Parnes Plate
4. Counttheheadlights Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

RACE 3Sir Eugene Gorman Handicap, 1400m

13. Arktika | J: Harry Coffey

Arktika returns here after an extended break following two nice jumpouts, having raced well first-up before with success over this trip. With blinkers applied and from the favourable barrier, Harry Coffey will be able to have her in the box seat with speed coming across from the wide barriers. We expect her to run a big race here, presenting as a nice EW betting prospect at the current quote.

DANGERS: 1. GOOD AND PROPER, 6. RUMBLED AGAIN, 9. PARTY FOR ONE, 14. STAR OF CHAOS

STABLE TIP

Each Way
13 May 13:05
BEST VALUE
Sir Eugene Gorman (Bm78)
13. Arktika Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

RACE 5VRC Member Cameron Ryan Plate, 1600m

2. Lethal Thoughts | J: Blake Shinn

We elected to run Lethal Thoughts here instead of the Adelaide Guineas. Blake Shinn again pilots having extracted the ability we know he is capable of showing last time out, taking a gap when it presented before pinning his ears and hitting the line strongly for a nice win. From barrier 1, he’ll likely need a similar gap to appear here albeit he has the benefit of a long Flemington straight. We think the market has it correct here seeing him as the one to beat.

DANGERS: 1. RUSSIAN DANCER, 3. TORONTO TERRIER, 4. EL SOLEADO

STABLE TIP

Win
13 May 14:15
BEST OF DAY
Vrc Member Cameron Ryan Plate
2. Lethal Thoughts Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

RACE 6Hilton Nicholas Straight Six, 1200m

2. She's All Class | J: Ben Melham

Having broken a winless streak dating back to December 2020 two starts back, She's All Class was a frustrating watch last time out. Having jumped awkwardly to all but end her chances of a win, she was able to run the second-best last 600m, 400m and 200m of the race. With not a great deal of speed here, we’ll look to be positive with Ben Melham to ride. The favourite looks hard to beat here, but we’re confident of a top-three finish, on her way to an appearance in the Brisbane Winter Carnival.

DANGERS: 1. BUFFALO RIVER, 3. JIMMY THE BEAR, 5. IT'SOURTIME, 4. D'JUMBUCK

STABLE TIP

Each Way
13 May 14:50
Hilton Nicholas Straight Six
2. She's All Class Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

RACE 7Lexus Andrew Ramsden, 3200m

12. Cadre Du Noir | J: Harry Coffey

Cadre Nu Noir returns here a month between runs, with Harry Coffey down to ride (also booked for Alakahan). He was badly held up two starts back, and had to work very hard from the outside barrier to find his spot on the speed last time out, tiring late. Up to the 2800m and from barrier 6, Harry will look to have him jump positively with pace likely to come from Hezashocka, Rebel Racer and White Marlin. This race has a long tail, and we think he’ll run better than his price suggests.

DANGERS: 10. WHITE MARLIN, 3. HEZASHOCKA, 18. EL PATRONESS

STABLE TIP

Place
13 May 15:30
Lexus Andrew Ramsden
12. Cadre Du Noir Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

14. Herman Hesse | J: Beau Mertens

Herman Hesse steps out here after a pleasing run in the Mornington Cup, running the second-fastest last 600m, 400m and 200m of the race, running to within a length of his career-best rating. He’s a genuine stayer who should have no problems stepping up to the 2800m, having raced over this trip in the UK prior to joining the stable. From barrier 3, Beau Mertens will look to be positive and have him box-seated behind the speed. Whilst not gaining any favours with the weights, this race has a long tail, and we see him having an EW chance to book his ticket into the Melbourne Cup.

DANGERS: 10. WHITE MARLIN, 3. HEZASHOCKA, 18. EL PATRONESS

STABLE TIP

Each Way
13 May 15:30
Lexus Andrew Ramsden
14. Herman Hesse Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

19. Alakahan | J: Harry Coffey

This has been the target race for Alakahan, following what was a frustrating run in the Sydney Cup. On the tough going and having jumped awkwardly, we were pleased with how close he was able to finish, being one of only a couple of runners who made ground in the straight. From barrier 8, Harry Coffey (also booked for Cadre Nu Noir) will look to ride him where he’s comfortable, getting into clear running in the straight where he can hopefully hit the line nicely. This race has a long tail, and we think he’ll also run better than his price suggests.

DANGERS: 10. WHITE MARLIN, 3. HEZASHOCKA, 18. EL PATRONESS

STABLE TIP

Place
13 May 15:30
Lexus Andrew Ramsden
19. Alakahan Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

RACE 9The Rose Room Sprint, 1200m

7. El Padrino | J: Will Price

El Padrino returns here second-up, after kicking off in the VOBIS Gold Dash. He held a gallop to the line there, in what was a slowly run race, with the winner, third and fourth sitting first, second and third in the run. We’ve elected to keep him at the 1200m for now, and from barrier 16 Will Price with 52.5kgs will look to get a cart off the leaders, before hitting the line strongly in what we hope is an improved showing. It’s an open race, but one we’re keen to just watch and cheer.

DANGERS: 1. RENOSU, 2. AIRMAN, 5. REDZOUST, 9. MIDTOWN BOSS

STABLE TIP

No Bet
13 May 16:45
The Rose Room Sprint
7. El Padrino Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

Scone Runners

RACE 6Scone RSL Benchmark 78 Handicap, 1700m

7. Mayfair Spirit | J: Andrew Gibbons

Mayfair Spirit has pulled up well following his run in the Orange Cup over the 2100m. The inside draw was unlikely to have assisted his cause there with the better ground being on the outside of the track, albeit he fought strongly to the line. Dropping 400m and back to a BM78 on a good track, we’ll look to come across with Highlights and be prominent in running with cover. With not a lot of depth, conditions to suit, and some of the main hopes drawn wide, we’re hopeful he can sneak into the money.

DANGERS: 5. ESTADIO MESTALLA, 4. CLAIM THE CROWN, 8. UNSPOKEN, 14. FLOATING

STABLE TIP

Each Way
13 May 14:00
Scone Rsl (Bm78)
7. Mayfair Spirit Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

Morphettville Runners

RACE 7Thomas Farms South Australian Derby, 2500m

9. Promises Kept | J: Mark Zahra

Promises Kept is a progressive type stepping out for the stable for the first time here, having run nine lengths above class average last time out to win the St Leger Trial over 2200m. The market has given credence to his ability off that run as he finds himself prominent in the market, behind a deserving favourite. Mark Zahra heads over to take the ride, and from barrier 9 we’ll look to be positive, sitting a couple of pairs off the leaders, getting him into clear running on the turn before hopefully seeing his best which has him fighting out the finish here.

DANGERS: 16. SHE'S FIT, 10. AIN'T HE GRAND, 1. SUIZURO, 7. LOCO, 5. RED SUN SENSATION

STABLE TIP

Each Way
13 May 15:42
Thomas Farms South Aust. Derby
9. Promises Kept Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

10. Ain't He Grand | J: Ben Allen

Ain't He Grand pulled up well following his run in the Frank Packer Plate, where he was unfavoured by the sit-and-sprint affair in the small field. He’s unlikely to see that scenario here, with strong tempos usually present in these big fields. From the visitors’ draw, Ben Allen will need early luck in having him navigate a passage across to find cover, from where we’ll hope he can get a toe into the race from a good one. If luck does come his way and the deserving favourite strikes trouble, he could be a knockout chance at the price.

DANGERS: 16. SHE'S FIT, 9. PROMISES KEPT, 1. SUIZURO, 7. LOCO, 5. RED SUN SENSATION

STABLE TIP

Each Way
13 May 15:42
Thomas Farms South Aust. Derby
10. Ain't He Grand Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

Doomben Runners

RACE 6JRA Chairman's Handicap, 2000m

13. Secret Glamour | J: Craig Williams

Secret Glamour is looking to go back-to-back with Craig Williams to ride this time out. The likely improving track should suit, though the lack of speed in the race will work against her here. Of the pace, we see Cepheus and Nerve Not Verve leading the field up, with our girl ridden where she’s comfortable, likely to be in the second half of the field. It’s an open race void of much depth for a Group 3, and if she runs up to her last start performance, we expect her to be competitive here.

DANGERS: 3. CEPHUS, 8. KALAPOUR

STABLE TIP

Each Way
13 May 14:43
Jra Chairman's Hcp
13. Secret Glamour Playup

* Odds Correct At Time Of Posting. Check Playup Website For Latest Odds

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